ACA numbers: What's squishy, what's solid?

Early tallies of 2015 participation in the Affordable Care Act exchange are bound to raise follow-up questions,  not only among those who doubt anything President Obama says but those trying to sort out the nuances of a complex system.

The White House was eager to announce a preliminary estimate of 11.4 million sign-ups nationwide.  That includes totals from the 37 states that use the federal marketplace as well as  "preliminary analyses"  of data from state-run markets.  Federal officials say that number is 10 percent over the White House target, with numbers that jumped significantly in the final week.

White House graphic touting tally

As indicated by the  "preliminary" label,  that tally is bound to change.  Some states that run their own markets have granted extensions to the Feb. 15 deadline because of winter storms or system glitches.  Some who hit snarls in the federal exchange on the final weekend got an extra week to finish enrolling.

The tally includes people who selected plans but won't actually pay the premiums.  Kevin Counihan,  CEO of the federal marketplace,  predicts that about 87 percent of enrollments will translate to actual coverage.  That comes to about 9.9 million people.  Obamacare critic Avik Roy noted that 2014 ACA retention translated to 84 percent,  "fairly similar to (the rate) experienced by private insurers in the conventional ... insurance market."

The feds also released totals for the states using HealthCare.gov and major cities within those markets  (read that report here).  We don't yet have a breakdown of new plans vs. renewals for the states,  though Counihan said about 8.6 million of the 11.4 million nationwide,  or 75 percent,  were renewals.  Nor do we have a final count on how many got subsidies,  though a Feb. 9 report pegged North Carolina's total at 92 percent.

Katherine Restrepo,  health analyst for the John Locke Foundation,  notes that while that percentage may be accurate it can be misleading.  Those at the high end of eligibility (up to $95,400 for a family of four) get small tax credits that do little to lower costs, she says.

Roy contends that the White House tally is "deceptive" because it includes an unknown number of people who already had insurance and switched. It's true that the totals don't distinguish between those who had insurance and those who didn't,  though I'm not convinced that the White House and "friendly media outlets" have claimed otherwise.

Finally,  reader Bryan Griffith correctly called me out for not including any specifics in a recent article citing a surge of last-minute enrollments in Charlotte.  Here's what the latest report shows:  The Charlotte metro area got almost 17,000 sign-ups between Feb. 6 and Feb. 15,  or about 12 percent of the total enrollment logged during the 13-week enrollment period.

Burr leads push to repeal and replace Obamacare

U.S. Sen. Richard Burr is taking a lead role in the latest push to replace the Affordable Care Act with a more market-driven approach to health reform.  The North Carolina Republican joined two other committee chairs last week in introducing a new version of a prior  "repeal and replace" plan.

Burr

The Patient Choice,  Accountability,  Responsibility and Empowerment Act  (Patient CARE) would repeal the coverage mandate that's part of the ACA and revamp the subsidized marketplace that helps low-income people buy health insurance.  The act,  co-authored by Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan,  would use the marketplace to replace Medicaid expansion,  allow interstate insurance purchases and revamp the tax break for employer insurance.

Avik Roy,  author of a leading plan to reform the ACA piece by piece,  offers an in-depth look at how the new Patient CARE Act compares with the prior version and with his own plan.  He's a fan of the Burr-Hatch-Upton bill,  even though he contends his own plan is more practical because it doesn't require repeal of the ACA.

"Both plans would offer better health outcomes for the poor,  by allowing those on Medicaid to obtain tax credits for the purchase of private health insurance and health savings accounts,"  Roy writes.  "Mostly importantly,  both plans would cover more people than Obamacare,  because they would drive down the cost of health insurance for those who can't afford it today."

For a more skeptical take,  read this piece by the Huffington Post's Jeffrey Young and Jonathan Cohn.

"Republicans promote these changes as increasing  'choice'  and  'flexibility'  in insurance,  claiming that they will result in less federal spending and that younger adults will pay lower prices,"  they write.  "But each of these proposed changes would carry other consequences as well.  Policies without full benefits,  including  'junk'  plans and mini-med policies,  would return to the market.  The same pricing practices that reduced premiums for 25-year-olds would jack them up for 60-year-olds,  putting insurance out of reach for many older Americans."

The Brookings Institution also offers a pro and con perspective.  Stuart Butler gives the plan  "two cheers"  as a viable plan for  "addressing the impasse over the ACA and achieving health coverage goals that are widely shared,"  while Henry Aaron says it moves in the wrong direction by creating more holes in the health care system.

Can GOP reform Obamacare?

As the Republican-led Congress begins its 2015  "repeal the Affordable Care Act"  season,  this seems like a good time to loop back to Philip Klein's examination of GOP alternatives for health care.

Tuesday's vote on H.R. 596 is part of an ongoing political drama that has already featured more than 50 house votes to repeal the ACA.  But in "Overcoming Obamacare,"  conservative health writer Klein delves into three long-term conservative strategies to reshape a broken system.

Roy

Avik Roy of the Manhattan Institute,  a former adviser to the Mitt Romney presidential campaign,  is a leading voice in what Klein dubs the reform camp.  Roy's plan preserves some elements of the ACA,  including the insurance exchange and protections for people with pre-existing conditions.

"Roy's philosophical starting point on the health care issue differs from that of many conservatives in that he has argued in favor of universal coverage, calling it  'a morally worthy goal.'  His plan is also based on the assumption that repeal is unlikely,"  Klein writes.

Roy's reform plan outlines changes that can be made piece by piece,  such as eliminating many of the ACA taxes,  allowing insurers to charge higher rates for older customers and extending private-insurance exchanges to Medicaid and Medicare.  He touts it as a politically feasible strategy that would make insurance cheaper and more appealing for young people while costing taxpayers less than the ACA.

Klein predicts that it's more likely to alienate members of both parties,  with Democrats resisting the changes while Republicans  "would be expected to embrace the goal of universal coverage" and  "cede major ground to Obamacare on taxes,  spending and regulations."

Coming soon:  A look at the "replace"  and  "restart"  strategies.